李慧芬
經由 在 2月 8, 2019
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逆市上升   碧桂園估值偏低

 

恭喜發財!! 祝讀者們財源廣進、身體健康!!

 

踏入豬年,港股即出現下跌走勢,唯內房表現尚算不俗,碧桂園(02007.HK)亦出1.20%升幅。因集團此前公布,連同其合營公司和聯營公司,2019年1月合同銷售金額330億元人民幣(下同),合同銷售建築面積約382萬平方米。

 

中國指數研究院發布最新報告指,1月全國100個城市(新建)住宅平均價格為每平方米14,710元,按月上漲0.22%,漲幅較上月收窄0.03%,並預計未來房地產市場整體將繼續穩定運行。百城之中66個城市按月上漲,31個城市按月下跌,3個城市與上月持平;與上月相比,本月價格按月上漲的城市數量增加6個,按月下跌的城市數量減少5個。

1月百城新房價格按月漲幅居前的多為三線城市,前五位分別為贛州、常熟、貴陽、三亞和蕪湖;宿遷、佛山、寧波、鞍山和南京則按月跌幅居前。

 

內房股今年物業合約預售可按年平均上升18%(2018年按年升31%),預期內房股至2020年的物業預售盈利能力可望回穩及改善,因內地地價已持續回調,相信內房股毛利率至2021年可望見底。根據過往歷史,內地樓市回調之時,財務強勁、毛利鞏固、物業預售表現優於同業、估值具較大折讓的內房股股價可跑贏大市。

 

碧桂園(02007.HK) 目前估值正面,因集團有更多業務的低線城市將獲得更多政府政策支持,而且除放慢擴張步伐外,碧桂園(02007.HK)亦已採取多種措施糾正及控制經營風險,相信可使其在周期轉變時加快市佔增長。

 

建議投資者於11元之下買入,獲利目標12.40元。

 

 

  

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" stroked="f"> (撰文: 高寶集團證券 執行董事 李慧芬)

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